Climate Models and Uncertainty
Provided by: MIT Environmental Solutions Initiative|Published on: April 27, 2021|Last updated: September 26, 2026
Grades: 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
Type: Lesson Plans
Subjects: Earth and Space Sciences, Computer Science
Authors: MIT Environmental Solutions Initiative
Location: Earth
This resource has been reviewed by SubjectToClimate's climate scientists and verified for scientific accuracy and up-to-date information. Learn about our review process →
This resource has been reviewed by SubjectToClimate's climate scientists and verified for scientific accuracy and up-to-date information. Learn about our review process →
Synopsis
- This resource on the uncertainty of climate models includes a lesson plan, a podcast, a game on adaptation and risk, discussion questions, and abridged excerpts from the IPCC's AR5 Summary for Policymakers.
- Students will learn how scientists quantify and think about uncertainty, especially in the context of climate models.
Teaching Materials
Positives
- The game allows students to create an adaptation plan for a coastal city and test the plan in several randomized scenarios.
- The podcast guest, MIT professor Kerry Emanuel, describes the complexity of global systems and climate models using terms and metaphors that are easy to understand.
Additional Prerequisites
- Students should be familiar with some of the impacts of rising temperatures including sea level rise, desertification, and disruptions in our global food systems.
Differentiation
- Students can make this topic relatable by thinking about times in their own life when they've had to assess probability, risks, and uncertainty.
- Students can look at climate models and assess the areas of uncertainty using resources like this climate simulation.
- To learn more about uncertainty and climate risks, students can explore this lesson on risk.
This resource includes a podcast in which an MIT expert is interviewed and discusses how science deals with and quantifies uncertainty. The ways in which scientists discuss uncertainty and risk are contrasted with the ways in which policymakers and individuals process information and make decisions. A transcript and educator's guide, along with additional resource links, are provided. This resource is recommended for teaching.
Teaching Tips
Standards
Resource Type and Format
Scientist Reviewed
This resource has been reviewed by SubjectToClimate's climate scientists and verified for scientific accuracy and up-to-date information. Our review process ensures that every resource in our library reflects the current state of climate science.
Learn about our review process →
